Deribit Exchange Data Reveals Bitcoin’s Critical $110,000 Max Pain Level Amid Historic Weak Week

Bitcoin is experiencing its third-worst performing week of the year, with Week 38 historically delivering an average return of -2.25%. Only Weeks 28 and 14 have been more punishing, posting losses of -2.78% and -3.91% respectively. The current downturn aligns with this pattern, as BTC trades NEAR $113,000—down nearly 2% this week.

Deribit exchange data reveals a looming max pain level of $110,000 for September's monthly options expiry, suggesting further downside risk. The metric, which identifies the strike price inflicting maximum losses on option holders, underscores growing bearish pressure. Perpetual funding rates have slumped to 4%, reflecting dwindling demand for Leveraged longs—a classic sign of speculative fatigue.

Implied volatility sits at 37, hovering near historic lows. Yet beneath the short-term turbulence lies resilience: Bitcoin remains 4% up for September and 6% higher this quarter. With 14 weeks remaining—most historically bullish—the current lull may precede a resurgence of volatility.

Meanwhile, gold's 1% rally highlights the divergent paths of store-of-value assets, as traders weigh macroeconomic uncertainties against crypto's cyclical tendencies.